# Whether Weather Thread?



## Zed

Admitted amateur weather geek. I lived until 10 in the middle of the continent, then on the W coast until now at 44. In the middle, the weather came from your neighbors to the W or SW (edit: Doh!), usually, and could be tracked across the country, in the W, it pops up on the doorstep. I'm old enough to remember getting weather from the newspaper. One day-old satellite pic, some temp highs and lows, and a rough forecast. In order to get any context from the static pic, you had to follow the paper every day to see any trends in the gray-scale tiny image. Then in '91 the heavens gave me access to a university VAX I could dial-in to at a smoking 2400bps to get my HOUR OLD Compuserve gifs any time I wanted! Heady times!

That's history. I now have a half-hour old, automatically up-dated, looped, animated water vapor (illustrates advection best, IMO) gif. 









Oh, yeah baby....

Now, anyone can get incredible amounts of information that would make the meteos in the '80s look like fast food managers. Today there is so much info it might be even more clouded --heh-- with the PDO, ENSO, AO, MJO and climate change (whether you think it is caused by us or not, it's changed. Change happens.).

I'd like a weather thread on AKFF. It can be whatever you want. Something extraordinary that happened, drought, flood, incredible stretches of fair weather (Yeah right), and where ever on the globe, even what you hope for this Sat for your only paddle this month. Like I said, I'm a North American native and I've spent 30 years trying to grasp what I can about my weather, including some school, but not for a degree. The S Hemi weather is a paradigm shift I think I would have to immerse in to understand well enough. That whole Corioilette Effect or whatever, where water drains clockwise. So watching you talk about your weather would help, and I think now more than ever it's evident it's all connected. If the MJO gets tele-connected to the Westerlies we get a metric shit-ton of rain in a short amount of time, with very high freeze lines. Disasters in the mountains ensue.

I'll start locally.
It isn't looking good for CA so far. Another dry year is going to be a huge burden. I see mandatory state wide rationing of water next year. January then February are our wettest months, followed by March then December. December is dry so far, so the water year is in deficit already, and the pattern is following the last couple years where the West coast is not wet, but the E coast gets the Lows and troughs. There's a shot of rain coming mid week, right when I can get out for a paddle, from a cut-off Low seen off SoCal above. Love that timing.

This is remarkable:








Twitter:
https://twitter.com/Zamzamil_/status/41 ... 40/photo/1

Don't see that every day. There is a lot of people suffering in that region.

"Winter is coming!"


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## kayakone

Zed said:


> Admitted amateur weather geek.


Ditto, since early childhood, particularly fascination with storms and periods of intense rainfall, or extreme heat or cold. (the lowest I experienced in Oz was - 25 C ....above Charlotte's Pass beside Blue Lake in a record blizzard. I nearly died in that one.)



Zed said:


> This is remarkable:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Twitter:
> https://twitter.com/Zamzamil_/status/41 ... 40/photo/1
> 
> Don't see that every day. There is a lot of people suffering in that region.
> 
> "Winter is coming!"


That looks like evidence of global warming! :lol: :lol:

Great idea Troy. More later.


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## Junglefisher

What I struggle with is just how local weather can be. We had one day here where we maxed out at -11C. Hinton is less than 100km away and had +5C.
Snowfall varies so much between the two, we have 2' on the ground, they have bare dirt.
Back at the farm, we need to run 3 or 4 rain guages because the rainfall can vary up to 500% over diferent areas of the farm.
And yet, there is a distinct correlation between weather trends in Australia and those in Canada.
This is shaping up to be our 3rd wet year in a row and probably the wettest of them all. I think we've neary had our annual snowfall already.

The problem with long term trends is that, as humans, we consider our lifetimes to be long term. We don't know if it's normal for Northern America to have 10 years of really cold winters every now and then. We don't know if it's normal for Australia to have very low rainfall for 50 years in a row once every 1000 years.


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## sunshiner

Great idea, Troy.

One of the main indicators of what local climate will be is distance from the equator. In general terms, the closer the location is to the equator, the hotter the climate. This distance is simply expressed as "latitude", north or south.

Most Australians, in my experience, have no idea how the latitudes of Australia's cities compare with those of well known northern hemisphere cities. Viewers of the pic of the snow-sprinkled pyramids in Cairo might be taken aback that a city perceived by most Australians as having an extremely hot climate should see snow from time to time. Yet here in Australia, we commonly receive snow in cities and towns closer to the equator than Cairo is.

Admittedly, altitude makes a difference, but snow on Australia's New England Tableland or even in Stanthorpe, Queensland would cause no fuss in Australia. Armidale, in NSW, Australia, on the New England Tableland, is about the same numeric latitude (but south) as Cairo, Egypt.

Many people would also be surprised to learn that Hobart, Australia's most southerly city, is about the same distance from the equator as Rome, Italy. This means that almost all European capital cities are further from the equator than any Australian capital city.

I followed the Twitter thread you linked. It was headed "First snow in Egypt for a 100 years"

Yet if you google the subject you'll find snowfalls have apparently occurred in Egypt quite recently. For example, at Alexandria, a couple of hours drive NW of Cairo, at sea level, in January 2012! Certainly snowfalls on the high ground of the Sinai peninsula would be relatively common.

Just my two cents' worth.


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## Zed

Junglefisher said:


> This is shaping up to be our 3rd wet year in a row and probably the wettest of them all. I think we've neary had our annual snowfall already.


Well this certainly correlates to our recent dry years. A big fat High pressure parks over the continental W and storms roll over it into BC and the rest of CAN and drive S into the Eastern US. Good for you and them but not us.


> The problem with long term trends is that, as humans, we consider our lifetimes to be long term. We don't know if it's normal for Northern America to have 10 years of really cold winters every now and then. We don't know if it's normal for Australia to have very low rainfall for 50 years in a row once every 1000 years.


I'm sure a lot of the cycles are beyond us, but there is clues. Tree cores and ice core are two.


sunshiner said:


> Just my two cents' worth.


I'd give you 2c a paragraph for that. Good stuff.
True, latitudes are the basic distances N and S, but in CA for instance, the Pacific has a cold current (California Current) coming down from the Gulf of Alaska and traveling S past Panama into the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone where the water gets sent out W along the tropics to warm again and start the cycle up Japan and around Alaska again. On the E coast of the US the Gulf Stream runs N from the tropics along the coast of Florida then off Labrador, Greenland and into the UK. At the same lat in the US the climate is vastly different East coast vs West.

The "Mediterranean" climate occurs at roughly the 35's N and S of the equator, even S AUS, Srn Africa, and Srn California.

Just checked: Giza is +243ft MSL. I live roughly 100ft higher than that, and only 4miles from the coast. It has snowed here, and it is roughly a 100yr phenom, but that's just a few flakes, not a foot. God help us if it did. LA would implode like the singularity of a black hole with all the sucky driving.

I've also found that the pic is 'shopped. It did indeed snow in Giza, but not enough to cover everything like the photo. Damn internet lied to me again.


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## dru

This is something that was different for me this year.










These low troughs and cold fronts stretching from the southern ocean into Australia. Apparantly this is quite normal in August/September. But this year the lows were savage and the troughs/fronts stretched from the cold southern ocean right up into outback Australia. What this does, marching across the country is to swap prevailing conditions from damn cold blusterly southerlies to desert north westerlies. With the extent so savage it lead to a heavy fire season alternated by cold and often wet weather.

Not unusual, but the degree of the change and the length of this "shoulder" weather pattern seemed much longer than we normally expect.


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## anselmo

Ireland has had a very mild winter so far
Last week we had a scirocco wind straight from Africa which meant temps of 12-14 deg C
This morning we had 4 deg C but still no frost yet
This time last year we'd had 2 snow days



Zed said:


> I've also found that the pic is 'shopped. It did indeed snow in Giza, but not enough to cover everything like the photo. Damn internet lied to me again.


You should check out the pics of Istanbul for the recent Champions league match Galatasaray v Juventus, which was called off mid-match due to snow

Effing long-a** google link


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## eagle4031

If the weather stays like this we will have more of the same :lol:


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## Junglefisher

kraley said:


> That being said - i am so impressed by the accuracy of forecasts today - we have pretty accurate 5 day outlooks here - 29 years aho i doubt tgat a 2 day forecast was very accurate.


One thing I really struggle with here is the lack of a decent forecast. We literally don't trust the forecast more than 6 hours in advance and even that is taken with a grain of salt. Precipitation and temperature, they just can't predict them worth a damn here. Wind they do a better job of. I'm assuming the mountains are the factor that causes this but it can make life hard at times.


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## anselmo

Junglefisher said:


> kraley said:
> 
> 
> 
> That being said - i am so impressed by the accuracy of forecasts today - we have pretty accurate 5 day outlooks here - 29 years aho i doubt tgat a 2 day forecast was very accurate.
> 
> 
> 
> One thing I really struggle with here is the lack of a decent forecast. We literally don't trust the forecast more than 6 hours in advance and even that is taken with a grain of salt. Precipitation and temperature, they just can't predict them worth a damn here. Wind they do a better job of. I'm assuming the mountains are the factor that causes this but it can make life hard at times.
Click to expand...

Same here
Met Eireann couldn't predict a Saturday night punch up in town, let alone the weather
They have actually been successfully sued by a hotel for wrongly predicting a hurricane in Donegal
Conversely, Sky news in the UK are extremely accurate in predicting Irish weather
My theory is because Sky look at a larger picture (Europe, UK and North Atlantic trends) whereas ME concentrate only on the immediate vicinity of the 4 provinces
Can't see the wood for those big ... uh woody ... uh things with leaves, what are they called again?


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## Zed

anselmo said:


> those big ... uh woody ... uh things with leaves, what are they called again?


A shrubbery!



Junglefisher said:


> kraley said:
> 
> 
> 
> That being said - i am so impressed by the accuracy of forecasts today - we have pretty accurate 5 day outlooks here - 29 years aho i doubt tgat a 2 day forecast was very accurate.
> 
> 
> 
> One thing I really struggle with here is the lack of a decent forecast. We literally don't trust the forecast more than 6 hours in advance and even that is taken with a grain of salt. Precipitation and temperature, they just can't predict them worth a damn here. Wind they do a better job of. I'm assuming the mountains are the factor that causes this but it can make life hard at times.
Click to expand...

I'm sure you have this too, but I've liked how CAN serves up their sat pix and have had them in my Weather bookmarks for a long time.
Here:
http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html

We've got access to several models that give ideas of coming systems out to 384 hours.
We call that Fantasyland. In the Summer, Fantasyland sometimes shows hurricanes swinging up into SoCal, and ideal Winter storms for the state, that make brief showings in the model solutions. Cool to think about but way too far out to be convincing. Generally the shotgun forecast; little accuracy, but it can give you an idea of the trend way out. Fair or unsettled.
240hours is still fantasy land, but if the models still show something somewhat consistently it's worth starting to make plans.
120hours is out of Fantasy, and into the realm of possibility. It is resolved enough to make plans around, but exact 12hr timing, and amounts remains hazy.
72hours: if some slug of moisture still remains, 3days will have it zeroed in on a 12hr window and precip amounts can be judged. It will also be visible on Sat loops at this point, so no longer theoretical.

For years, I (we) have watched something pop up at 384hours and watch it resolve into a storm. Or, watch it just disappear off the models somewhere between 240 and 120hours. It's a bit like the old sat pic in the paper, tracking something day to day. It's also a bit of disseminating of clues and being your own talking head on TV, rather than reading it and taking it to the bank. I often differ with the TV weather guys in the 3-5day range, and that's just fine. It's weather and no one has a lock on the chaos.

Thursday looks like another cold and dry system for CA, that should strengthen and spread a mess of snow again back East. Very similar to the past weeks. A shift out of this pattern is needed for any real precip for us.


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## Zed

dru said:


> These low troughs and cold fronts stretching from the southern ocean into Australia. Apparantly this is quite normal in August/September. But this year the lows were savage and the troughs/fronts stretched from the cold southern ocean right up into outback Australia. What this does, marching across the country is to swap prevailing conditions from damn cold blusterly southerlies to desert north westerlies. With the extent so savage it lead to a heavy fire season alternated by cold and often wet weather.


dru!
Just smacked myself upside the head. After reading your post again (ok it took me more than twice) I get it. Like I said S Hemi weather is foreign to me.

Western Australia is in the same latitudes as Southern California (35ish) to Cabo San Lucas (22ish). Thanks to your chart, I can visualize CA and Baja flipped at the equator and Lows spinning the opposite direction, coming onto land. (Edit: Just looked up yearly rainfall of Perth vs CA, and Perth gets about what San Francisco up to the to pof the state gets, up in the 41N range) 
There would be an obvious difference is geography and currents as water can circulate past N AUS --The MJO genesis zone.

We rarely get the actual L's coming through SoCal. We get the trailing troughs and fronts just like in your chart. 
Now does Darwin get hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones? And if they do reach Darwin, are they coming from the NW and N generally?


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Zed said:


> We rarely get the actual L's coming through SoCal. We get the trailing troughs and fronts just like in your chart.
> Now does Darwin get hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones? And if they do reach Darwin, are they coming from the NW and N generally?


Darwin was destroyed by a cyclone on Christmas Day 1974  . Now all buildings there have to be built to withstand cyclones


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## Zed

Well Ill remember that.
Lets hope for a calm season. Incidentally the Atlantic and E Pacific was very sedate.


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## ArWeTherYet

Zed said:


> We rarely get the actual L's coming through SoCal. We get the trailing troughs and fronts just like in your chart.
> Now does Darwin get hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones? And if they do reach Darwin, are they coming from the NW and N generally?


Darwin is in the Tropics. It has wet/ monsoon and dry seasons (hot and wet and hot and dry).
We have cyclones usually generated over water and tracks any which way, hard to predict. 
Looks something like this during the wet season.









Cyclones can drift south to the southern east/west coast of Oz even New Zealand, but thats extremely rare.


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## RhubarbTheYeti

43 for Adelaide tomorrow, 37 for Hobart, 25 for us here on NE coast of Tas - thats why I now spend my summers here!


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## kayakone

ArWeTherYet said:


> Zed said:
> 
> 
> 
> We rarely get the actual L's coming through SoCal. We get the trailing troughs and fronts just like in your chart.
> Now does Darwin get hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones? And if they do reach Darwin, are they coming from the NW and N generally?
> 
> 
> 
> Darwin is in the Tropics. It has wet/ monsoon and dry seasons (hot and wet and hot and dry).
> We have cyclones usually generated over water and tracks any which way, hard to predict.
> Looks something like this during the wet season.
> 
> 
> Cyclones can drift south to the southern east/west coast of Oz even New Zealand, but thats extremely rare.
Click to expand...

Thanks Paul.

Only a couple of years since cyclone Yasi, which, had it hit any centres of high population density, would have been dramatically more catastrophic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Yasi

Some interesting reading:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml

No month is immune from cyclones in Australia, just that the frequency is higher between November and April: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/index.shtml


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## Junglefisher

Zed said:


> dru said:
> 
> 
> 
> We rarely get the actual L's coming through SoCal. We get the trailing troughs and fronts just like in your chart.
> Now does Darwin get hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones? And if they do reach Darwin, are they coming from the NW and N generally?
Click to expand...

Darwin does get cyclones but they can come from either direction. They form in either the Coral or Timor sea or the Gulf of Carpenteria then can go NESorW from there.









Track map of past cyclones.


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## anselmo

kayakone said:


> Only a couple of years since cyclone Yasi, which, had it hit any centres of high population density, would have been dramatically more catastrophic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Yasi


Cyclone Yeti? :lol:


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## Zed

Australian Yeti:









Thanks for that.
We'll get the occasional remnants that swing up into SoCal for some tropical rain, but historically, only one has made it into the bight with any punch left. The storm of 1936. Perth seems to have much more chance than we would here. That cold current coming down takes the wind out of most hurricanes headed N along Baja. ENSO years w warmer EPAC water, are the years to watch for storms making it farther N.

Thanks everyone for contributing.


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## Zed

US Snowpack in December is Largest in a Decade

...but...


> This November was the hottest on Earth since 1880


snip


> Perhaps counter-intuitively, however, snowfalls in the United States could possibly increase with global warming. "If you warm up the atmosphere, you can actually get heavier snowfalls in winter" because warmer air can hold more moisture, Trenberth told LiveScience. "That's one of the ironic things about global warming."


This is something I do subscribe too, and find myself telling Global Warmers all the time that say, "So much for global warming."
For instance, often it is too cold to snow. The air holds very little H2O, and ice crystals can't form into anything substantial. Also, in the transition zones between S tier rain and N tier snow, there can be terrible ice storms, where a cold pool of air lies on the ground and it rains on top of it. As that transition zone migrates N w/ more global warming, the less sun it gets in the Winter, allowing it to accumulate. And if it does accumulate and last, any new frozen precip will last longer if it falls on snow/ice already on the ground, versus bare ground, giving even more accumulation in the areas already with snow.
Theoretically.

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/us-snowpack-december-largest-decade-2D11764485


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## kayakone

Junglefisher said:


> Zed said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> dru said:
> 
> 
> 
> We rarely get the actual L's coming through SoCal. We get the trailing troughs and fronts just like in your chart.
> Now does Darwin get hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones? And if they do reach Darwin, are they coming from the NW and N generally?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Darwin does get cyclones but they can come from either direction. They form in either the Coral or Timor sea or the Gulf of Carpenteria then can go NESorW from there.
> 
> 
> Track map of past cyclones.
Click to expand...

Good one JF. Happy White Christmas.



anselmo said:


> kayakone said:
> 
> 
> 
> Only a couple of years since cyclone Yasi, which, had it hit any centres of high population density, would have been dramatically more catastrophic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Yasi
> 
> 
> 
> Cyclone Yeti? :lol:
Click to expand...

You Nick, crack me up. :lol: We have enough yetis on here at the moment (RTY in Tas and SA, and Killer at Moffats in Qld - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=64316 ..... now JF adds another one. The Australian YETI!

:lol: :lol:


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## Zed

EPAC ITCZ
Pretty cool chart toy.
This link is historical tracks centered around the Hurricane Bank (coincidence? Think not). California thankfully isn't a target, and most head out to sea. Get some epic S swells though for S facing SoCal.
Another really long link.
Takes a bit of hardware/bandwidth power for this link.
Edit:
Same time frame, centered closer to Cabo.


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## kayakone

Zed said:


> This link is historical tracks centered around the Hurricane Bank (coincidence? Think not). California thankfully isn't a target, and most head out to sea. Get some epic S swells though for S facing SoCal.
> 
> Same time frame, centered closer to Cabo.


You too have yetis Troy, though I do note their hair is less unruly than ours.

See what you mean about very few penetrating SoCal. Consider yourself to live in a good location then....200 - 330 km/hr yetis are terrifying things.


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## Zed

AUS yetis are hairy on top ours are hairy at the tip...


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Zed said:


> Australian Yeti:


Australia has been given a Brazilian - no map of Tassie :lol:


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## Junglefisher

Zed, I always believed in the "too cold to snow" thing.
Until a few weeks ago when it snowed at -30C. Today was heavy snow at times and -20C. I was out working in it and the only one not complaining about the cold.
Apparently a few weeks back California had the coldest max temp in the US? So the kids were told at school anyway.
Edson was the coldest place on earth one day last week (or maybe the week before).
I experienced "freezing rain" a few weeks back. It was -13C and raining. The rain would freeze as soon as it hit anything, your windshield, the road, a tree... whatever. Very freaky stuff to drive in, cannot keep your windshield clear.


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## Zed

Interesting.
Couple days ago SoCal had the highest max temp, too. Beat out those suckers in Florida.
Weather's coming in now. I threw in the towel on paddling tomorrow. It's right on the verge of a Small Craft Advisory. It's 10kts from the SW now and due to be up to 25 tomorrow. That's 18+hours of windswell and local wind, plus rain and possible lightning, hail, and water spouts tomorrow afternoon.
HTFU!
There goes my last window of the year. The water was holding at or just above 60 (15.5C), too. So long to that.

Ice storms can mess w/ infrastructure worse than anything. Best to not go anywhere, unless you're Canadian and it's just "winter".
When are we going to get a pic of you ice fishing from the yak? Ice is only about a meter thick...


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## kayakone

Zed said:


> Interesting.
> Couple days ago SoCal had the highest max temp, too. Beat out those suckers in Florida.
> Weather's coming in now. I threw in the towel on paddling tomorrow. It's right on the verge of a Small Craft Advisory. It's 10kts from the SW now and due to be up to 25 tomorrow. That's 18+hours of windswell and local wind, plus rain and possible lightning, hail, and water spouts tomorrow afternoon.
> HTFU!
> There goes my last window of the year. The water was holding at or just above 60 (15.5C), too. So long to that.
> 
> Ice storms can mess w/ infrastructure worse than anything. Best to not go anywhere, unless you're Canadian and it's just "winter".
> When are we going to get a pic of you ice fishing from the yak? Ice is only about a meter thick...


We feel for you.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/brisbane.shtml

Bugger summer!...need another cold beer (not Budweiser - real beer).


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## anselmo

2 deg this moring and sleet
Hate sleet
Rain fine
Snow fine
Sleet sux

Mind you the Met Eireann forecast failed to predict the hurricane force winds and storm we had yesterday
Useless shower of feckers (pun intended)


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## Zed

Toronto gettin hammered with ice.
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/12 ... otos.html#


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## Zed

Gives me the wind...
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-175.92,2.11,363

Click and grab the globe to orient yourself. Updates every 3hrs.


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## kayakone

Zed said:


> Gives me the wind...
> http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-175.92,2.11,363
> 
> Click and grab the globe to orient yourself. Updates every 3hrs.


Ripper site Troy. Of course we have a local version too by BOM, but it is good to see the big picture.

Merry Christmas


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## Junglefisher

Zed said:


> Toronto gettin hammered with ice.
> http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/12 ... otos.html#


Yeah, crazy stuff.


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## Zed

Its looking like SoCal willbe the warmest in the country on Christmas day.
Could see 25-30C at the coast. Strong NE offshore winds coming out of high pressure in the great basin that dry, warm and compress as they descend. Bad fire weather and uncommon this late into the wet season.


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## Zed

Low for the country yesterday night was International Falls, Minnesota at -42F (-41C?)
And a mere 126° warmer in Corona, CA, for the high today (84F, 29C).

Just finished the driest calendar year on record in the LA Basin. All the rain and snow is East of the Mississippi river, and no real end in sight for a pattern change, here. Just gonna have to suck it up and let the yards go brown. The E coast needs a break from the snow and the W needs precip desperately.


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## Geoffw

anselmo said:


> Junglefisher said:
> 
> 
> 
> That being said - i am so impressed by the accuracy of forecasts today - we have pretty accurate 5 day outlooks here - 29 years aho i doubt tgat a 2 day forecast was very accurate.
> 
> 
> 
> Same here
> Met Eireann couldn't predict a Saturday night punch up in town, let alone the weather
Click to expand...

I'M amused anselmo at your description of Met Eireann. It's been a long (30+) time since I left Ireland but I remember the weather forecasts. 4season's in one day. Very unpredictable. Sounds like nothing has changed. However, here in beautiful .SA forecasts are pretty accurate most of the time like Junglefisher says. I can check out very local weather through willyweather and on most occasions it's accurate. I wish i understood it better though. Look forward to reading more through this thread.
Thanks for starting it Zed.


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## Zed

There's a rumble in Brighton tonight...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ernments-Cobra-emergency-committee-meets.html


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## ArWeTherYet

Possibly extreme weather events could be caused from further afield.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/spac ... arity.html

And apparently earths magnetic field may flip sometime in the near future.......guess we wont be down under anymore.


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## Zed

Zed said:


> There's a rumble in Brighton tonight...
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ernments-Cobra-emergency-committee-meets.html


Anselmo and some fantastic shots.
http://www.akff.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=64688


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## RhubarbTheYeti

46 degrees for Adelaide today - even by Adelaide standards, thats bloody hot  and is exactly the reason I now spend my summers in Tas where its nice mild low 20's today


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## Zed

Into the 30s here tday. Yeah C.
Freaky.

Theres a saying from my parents and grands from N central USA, "We're going to pay for this weather."
That comes from the volitile and dynamic swings in the Spring; nice 20s one day then frozen and a foot of snow the next. So if it was too nice for too long they knew theyd pay.
[I hope] we're going to pay, hold the floods and mud slides.


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## Junglefisher

+7C here today with 70kmh winds. Lots of snow melting.
Positive temps forecast all week.
Almost unheard of.


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## Zed

And we've got a fire, burning down out of the mountains into Glendora, N of LA, pushed by stiff dry offshore winds.

LA extended the contract with (Toronto) Canada to keep the SuperScooper fixed wing tankers until the end of this month as the fire season hasn't ended. It is mutually beneficial as their and our fire seasons fall on different months of the calendar. This year is different, though, and the tankers might (must) have to go back to Canada while we are still in dangerous fire conditions in SoCal.

Com'on rain.


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Where I live in SA is southern Barossa / Northern Adelaide Hills with plenty of bush. Shit I'm glad I'm not there now.
Having said that though, huge fires came through here in East Tas about 7yrs ago and many homes were lost in Scamander.
The dangers of living in Oz near bushland


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## RhubarbTheYeti

So is ya BIL a CFS volunteer? Ngarkat is a hell of a way from Eden Valley


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## RhubarbTheYeti

I lived in Angaston for a while - nice little town in the hills above the Barossa valley. She will be safe there for sure


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## Zed

The Colby Fire I mentioned earlier is now mostly contained with no active fronts. Roughly 1700 acres of mountainous terrain up against houses.
5 homes damaged (one damaged house had 5 tenants whose places were destroyed), 2 destroyed. No loss of life.

Started by 3 delinquents tending their illegal campfire after an illegal overnight camp. Wind kicked up a brand and started the brush burning with no chance of stopping it, so they ran. They were picked up by local police and Forest Rangers separately. One admitted with remorse that they started the fire by accident.

They are being held on $500,000 bail each for recklessly starting a fire on federal land. Initially it was $20,000 each for a state charge, but the DA bumped up the charge as they were in Angeles National Forest. I feel sorry for them on one hand. Who wasn't stupid in their early 20s? On the other, there has been fire weather warnings and restrictions for weeks in this weather pattern.


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## Zed

"mostly contained" isn't really the right phrase.
It isn't moving. There are still 2000residents under mandatory evac, because just a little wind would get it charging again in the dry conditions.



> (one damaged house had 5 tenants whose places were destroyed)


The main house was undamaged, but the converted residences with the tenants was. This is the former residence of the Singers of Singer sewing machines, built in the 1920's. Still called the Singer Mansion. Splitting hairs on a damaged house.

They are really going after the three responsible for starting it. The US Attorney wants the special circumstance Arson charge where one doesn't have to start the fire on purpose to destroy something, but start a fire knowing there could be consequences.


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Hey Salti - how ya sis and BIL going with those fires?


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## Zed

Colby fire is 98% contained. 
5 homes destroyed.
19 damaged.
1900acres burned.
The three in custody are due in federal court today for pleas. If found guilty of current charge theyll do 5 years each.
Mind your fires and dont leave them smoldering.


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## jbonez

Anybody seen this before

thought it was worth a look, click on the wind speed around fraser

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-205.08,-23.71,3000


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## Zed

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 30.18,1810

Thanks.


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## kayakone

That is because there is a 1028 hp high in the southern Coral Sea, and a deepening 995 hp low in the northern Coral Sea. High pressure gradient = strong winds.

AI country, or, mayb, even a bit too strong for that? The pressure gradient is expected to increase in the next day or two.

Goodbye offshore kayaking in Qld/Northern NSW, at least for a week. We'll all be stir crazy in a few days. :shock:


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## RhubarbTheYeti

44.7 C recorded for Adelaide on 2/2/14.
FARK :shock: 
My decision to abandon SA over summer is absolutely confirmed


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## Zed

Barrabundy braggin.
We have 25-30mm since July 1st.
There's been a pretty drastic pattern change, here, but unfortunately, it isn't a beneficial change for rain. Warm and dry to cold and dry with just teasing drops enough to wet the road every couple days. Plus the ocean is frothy green gazpacho from the constant cold NW wind. Winter's finally here, but not really.


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## Zed

Heres a new one.
Factory effect snow. Lake effect snow is cold air flowing over warmer water then rising orographically as it hits land and precipitates out. Its common in areas E of Great Lakes that havent frozen over.





We need more factories.


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## Zed

Well looks like winter is finally here. No more fair but cool weather.
Weve had 2.5cm rain since July 1.
We have 7cm predicted over the next 3days. These jaded CA fools are in for a storm not seen for years. Real quick reminder! There will be chaos. Mud slides floods traffic collisions.

Tried to get in on the last fishing day today but the condition were rough and the fish not eating. Took a 2 mile paddle back to the takeout entirely in the trough with cold buckets getting dumped in my lap from starbord. I was wet to my nipples but stayed upright. Another real quick reminder of shit conditions and why I wear a PFD.


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## kayakone

From the look of that, you may get more precipitation than that. BTW, your lows spin the wrong way Troy.


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## Zed

Probably 60mm overnight. Now you can see ^ the uppercut is coming after last nights jab. This one has been hyped for a week. Freeze line is high like 2500m so just a rain event. Sierra Nevad rangesnow should be measured in meters above 2500m.


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## Junglefisher

70mm and you'll have mudslides, traffic chaos etc? Wow. Sounds like Calgary where they had major floods last year. They had 200mm over several days. We'd consider that a decent rainfall out at Texas (with minor flooding) and nothing more than a summer storm in Cairns.
We've had some cold weather again but this weekend is looking real chilly. -35C overnight and -20 ish during the day with fairly high windchill.


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## Zed

I added a zero. What do I know about mms.
6mm overnight.
Yeah 3in in 24hrs is pretty big for here. Thats about 1/6 of the yearly total. Recent fires above LA have denuded the hills leaving the soil hydrophobic. Those foothills/mountains are expected to get near 15+cm in the same period --Im at the coast. If it cant get soaked up it flows.


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## Zed

Just started raining about 1hr ago (2300) for the bigger second storm.
Here's predicted rainfall (in INCHES) for the region, from the National Weather Service San Diego:










I live about between San Clemente and Laguna Beach --the far S rim of the basin in the San Joaquin hills (300m) It's not going to be good if these numbers are accurate, as some are into 1/3 a year's worth in a weekend. As waves come through the freeze line is expected to fluctuate and there might be added flash flood potential when snow gets rained on.

Little geography primer:
LA sits in a basin with the ocean on the W-SW. The N rim of the basin is the 3000m San Gabriel mountains running W-E, perpendicular to the storm's counter-clockwise spin.










The San Gabe's [sic] are rugged, young, steep mountains with myriad canyons recently burned, and much more blacktop than when most of the storm drains/flood control system was built. This may be an infamous California storm. Feast or famine; drought or deluge.


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Guess you're feeling pretty nervous right now about what's gonna happen.
Good luck mate.
If you stop posting for a while we'll know that you have infrastructure damage


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## Zed

Nothing that dramatic for me, but it's already affecting folks w/ mandatory evacs of 1000 homes beneath the Colby Fire mentioned in this thread.
I'll be watching from the sidelines, working from home tomorrow.


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## Zed

I grabbed this for posterity:
An extra-tropical storm that spun up to form an eye, with a central pressure of a Cat2 hurricane.


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## kayakone

To the bunker Troy, quick! Take your yak. :shock:


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## Zed

Well it's nearly over.

Some traffic fatalities and 20x the normal rate of accidents, some mud, some urban flooding but overall it was a good soaker.
I ended up w 2.5in (63mm) from 0000 Thursday to 1200 Saturday. 
The most rain I've seen mentioned is 11.8in (300mm). Some places in the Basin got more rain in that time period than they did all last year, with that graphic I posted above being pretty legit. There have been waterspouts, and one tornado over land (no damage) with some hail, lightning and thunder. There was 80kt straight wind gusts measured off Point Conception (farthest W point in SoCal). There's currently a 3-5m swell running with horrible seas and debris from the river outflows. Pretty good storm.


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## Zed

Whelp, I did say nearly over.

This just in:
Marine warning


> * UNTIL 445 PM PST
> 
> * AT 402 PM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
> A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING WINDS GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS OR
> GREATER...ABOUT 12 NM SOUTHWEST OF LAGUNA BEACH...MOVING
> NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
> WAS LOCATED JUST BEHIND THIS STORM.
> 
> * THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
> NEWPORT BEACH AND DANA POINT THROUGH 445 PM PST. IN ADDITION
> TO WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS
> CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE EXPECTED
> WITH THESE STORMS.


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## kayakone

Very unusual rainfall amounts for SoCal. I thought LA's average annual was about 13 inches.


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## Zed

Coming through now. Thunder and lightning and wind buffeting the building with driving rain.

Yeah, K1, generally the bottom of the basin is around that. The 11.8 is up at about 2000m, but still in the county.
Just had a bolt of lightning so close I couldn't even count it out. FLASH, BOOM and car alarms. Damn. That ain't normal.


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## kayakone

Good piccie Matt. They're scary looking mothers, especially with that roll cloud in front.


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## Zed

Bertros said:


> This one's rolling over Sydney as I type...


So what direction is that?
And how do I know thats Sydney? No opera house or bridge I can see.


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Zed said:


> And how do I know thats Sydney? No opera house or bridge I can see.


The Centrepoint Tower (tallest spire in photo) is a giveaway


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## Zed

What would the media be w/o words like apocalyptic?


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## Zed

ELLLL NEEEEEEENNNNYOOOOOO! ! !

Just a funny note on the media grasping at sensational straws.
Not all El Niño years are wet years in California. It can just as easily be another drought year. And just as easily change the temp trend mid Pacific by several deg C to a negative anomaly in a matter of weeks.

California drought: Rare good news as El Niño conditions emerge in Pacific

Uh the only thing that has "emerged" is media hype!

El Nino may bring relief to drought-stricken California later this year

"may" being the operative word.

Good news for drought-stricken California - El Nino forming in Pacific

"forming" in the models anyway.

So Long, California Drought? U.S. Issues El Niño Watch

Even a wet year won't necessarily end the drought. We're in deep, or the reservoirs are shallow.

California Drought News: Will El Niño get us out of this mess?

Somewhat balanced.

El Nino forecast increases chances of ending So. California drought


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## kayakone

Lucky you weren't on your yak Matt. Otherwise you would have been off it.


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Landline on ABC today had worrying short report about El Nino - big body of very warm water at lower depths of Pacific which is expected to rise to surface soon. SOI has crashed from +ve to -ve in a big way in last week already. Those desal plants that were built at end of last drought may be getting put to good use next summer


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## Junglefisher

I keep an eye on the weather reports from Texas, Qld as we own some land near there. So far this March, the lowest max temp was 31.1C. Last March, the highest max was 33C. It's gone into the 40s 4 or 5 times and hit 44C in Jan. On top of that, there's been almost no rain. Last summer I think our hottest was 38C and most days were low 30s, high 20s. We also had a good amount of rain, about 800mm from memory. I'm pretty sure the El Nino effect has already been in play this year.


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## dmax

I was caught in the middle of it yesterday, pulled up on a small beach in the middle of Brisbane Waters and took shelter under some trees away from my paddle (not sure if it was carbon fibre). I actually loved being in the middle of what felt like a typhoon, enjoyed the power of nature. Not that I would have if lightning had have come close. 
I was also painfully aware that I didn't actually know if I was doing the right thing sheltering under trees, but thought it was probably better than being exposed.
Out of interest, what is the "correct" procedure if you're caught in a lightning storm?


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Junglefisher said:


> I'm pretty sure the El Nino effect has already been in play this year.


I thought El Nino was a southern hemisphere phenemenon, influenced by water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and largely affecting Oz and South America


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## Zed

Named El Nino by NE South Americans because its effects were seen around Christmas.

And JF was talking about Texas, AUS.


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Zed said:


> And JF was talking about Texas, AUS.


Yep, as usual I hadn't read the post properly and thought JF was referring to Alberta.
Anyway, there are a variety of causes of drought - El Nino refers specifically to droughts caused by Pacific Ocean temps and the Southern Oscillation Index has been in positive territory for many many months now and has only had a sudden crash into the negative in the last week


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## Zed

Zed said:


> Just a funny note on the media grasping at sensational straws.
> Not all El Niño years are wet years in California. It can just as easily be another drought year. *And just as easily change the temp trend mid Pacific by several deg C to a negative anomaly in a matter of weeks*


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## RhubarbTheYeti

Zed said:


> Zed said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just a funny note on the media grasping at sensational straws.
> Not all El Niño years are wet years in California. It can just as easily be another drought year. *And just as easily change the temp trend mid Pacific by several deg C to a negative anomaly in a matter of weeks*
Click to expand...

Not looking for an argument here  
Landline is a weekly agricultural and rural program on the ABC and is not in any way "sensational media" but provides down to earth and practical stories for rural people. Always has a weather report (very brief) and shows the SOI. Yesterday they also had an interview with a climatologist on expectations for the coming months and the significance of the change in the SOI


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## Zed

Just making sure youre paying attention.

ENSO here is warmer EPAC giving storms more H2O by evaporation and more punch to the southern subtropical jetstream. Plus the pelagics wander further N from MEX with YFT and mahi often being caught as far N as Oregon. The rain is needed but I like the collateral effects. Like a good shot at a SoCal launch striped marlin.


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## Zed

I keep forgetting to mention this. There are no sardines around. Every ~10yrs the sardines disappear. The anchovys take over. This happens aroud the warm water years. Its ok for fishing on a kayak just an adjustment for tuna fishing from boats --smaller hooks smaller baits. I wont be making sardines for a few years and anchovy filter feed so its macks only for a while. Baracuda love the anchovy. Seabass and threshers love the baracuda...


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## kayakone

dmax said:


> ........Out of interest, what is the "correct" procedure if you're caught in a lightning storm?


Pray, whether you believe in God or not.

I was caught in a very bad one coming back from Jumpinpin a few years ago. The wind was 40 + knots, the lightning all around and striking every few seconds, with no time between the flash and the bang. I drove the sea kayak into the mangroves and lay forward on the deck covering my head with my hands as the hail started. I thought I was gone. This went on for over fifteen terrifying minutes. (Had I stayed in the river I am certain I would have been blown over.)

Come to think of it, I've been through four others in the bush, all equally ferocious. There is an utter feeling of helplessness, and overriding sense of doom as the lightning and hail and rain smashes down. In all these we just crouched and covered our heads with our hands, except the one that hit on a multi-pitch rock climb, 600' up where I was leading the last pitch, and wore a helmet which protected me from the sizeable hail. The hapless belayer and third person received cuts and bruises to their scalps and shoulders.


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## Zed

Earthquakes suck.
Just had a loooong rolly 5.1 about 30miles away.
I had just stood up and rode it out standing. Rolled and shook windows for a good 20-30 secs.
You just dont know how big it is or how bad its gonna get. Im barefoot and ready for bed FFS. Im not ready to bolt.


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## kayakone

Zed said:


> Earthquakes suck.
> Just had a loooong rolly 5.1 about 30miles away.
> I had just stood up and rode it out standing. Rolled and shook windows for a good 20-30 secs.
> You just dont know how big it is or how bad its gonna get. Im barefoot and ready for bed FFS. Im not ready to bolt.


Zed wrote "Earthquakes suck."
No kidding Troy? All you Caifornians living near the San Andreas fault line are mad....stark raving mad.

https://www.google.com.au/#q=San+Andreas+fault+line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault

I was in LA in 1990, and was in a telephone booth outside a suburban diner, when the whole thing shook and rattled for 20 seconds. I nearly crapped myself. As it subsided I ran into the diner and asked the guy behind the counter what should we do. He nonchantly replied, "Just another day in downtown LA. Don't worry man."

Later, after climbing in Red Rocks (Las Vegas), and visiting the Needles and Death Valley, we climbed on El Capitan in Yosemite. All good, no more shakes. But, when I got to San Francisco there were still big sections of elevated freeways lying there collapsed from the previous quake many months earlier (1989 Loma Prieta earthquake: About 25 miles (40 km) were ruptured (although the rupture did not reach the surface) near Santa Cruz, California, causing 63 deaths and moderate damage in certain vulnerable locations in the San Francisco Bay Area. Moment magnitude this time was about 6.9. The earthquake also postponed game 3 of the 1989 World Series at Candlestick Park. This quake occurred on October 17, 1989, at approximately 5:04 P.M. PDT.).

"OMG," I thought, "these guys are mad." One day..............

Convince me I'm wrong, go on.


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## Zed

Well the SAF is but one fault in an elaborate system. Last nights was not related to any major fault.
The USGS informed the public that weve had about 2 decades of less than average rate. Now it seems were coming into a more average rate. S Californians cant remember the weather last year so this EQ should be a reminder to get the ditch kits ready and to reenforce the "plan" w the family.

But you already knew I was mad.


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## kayakone

Pot calling the kettle black mate....I've done heap of crazy things that nearly killed me. It's just that you live there EVERY day.


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## Zed

And youre on the other side of the pacific ring of fire. Not immune.
Hurricanes in Florida tornadoes in Kansas earthquakes on the edges floods in the river basins Godzilla in Japan. Its always something.
What are ya gonna do?


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## kayakone

Zed said:


> And youre on the other side of the pacific ring of fire. Not immune.
> Hurricanes in Florida tornadoes in Kansas earthquakes on the edges floods in the river basins Godzilla in Japan. Its always something.
> What are ya gonna do?


Take up lawn bowls. :lol: Actually, while we do get a few shakes in Oz every year, it is pretty stable geologically. The main 'ring of fire' fault runs through NZ and goes well north, before turning west again to Indonesia, then north to Japan.

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=map+ ... 1046%3B776

We could still cop a tsunami through the gap between the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef and right down through NSW and SE Victoria. Brisbane itself would likely suffer minimally due to the protection offered by Moreton and Stradbroke Islands. Not so the Sunshine coast right up to the southern end of Fraser Island, Bribie and the Gold Coast.


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## Zed

I haven't been out since my last report. Ever since I said things are looking right, w/ warm water and bait and fair weather it has gone to shit w wind and some but not enough rain. Past 24hours left snow down to 1000m and a grand total of 7mm rain here. Local water is now 12C (full 6C drop from when I said that) with this mornings air at 10C at the coast.

That is not big game conditions. I hope to get out next Wed after 3 weeks off the water.
[/sweetblogbro]


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## Junglefisher

kayakone said:


> Zed said:
> 
> 
> 
> And youre on the other side of the pacific ring of fire. Not immune.
> Hurricanes in Florida tornadoes in Kansas earthquakes on the edges floods in the river basins Godzilla in Japan. Its always something.
> What are ya gonna do?
> 
> 
> 
> Take up lawn bowls. :lol: Actually, while we do get a few shakes in Oz every year, it is pretty stable geologically. The main 'ring of fire' fault runs through NZ and goes well north, before turning west again to Indonesia, then north to Japan.
> 
> https://www.google.com.au/search?q=map+ ... 1046%3B776
> 
> We could still cop a tsunami through the gap between the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef and right down through NSW and SE Victoria. Brisbane itself would likely suffer minimally due to the protection offered by Moreton and Stradbroke Islands. Not so the Sunshine coast right up to the southern end of Fraser Island, Bribie and the Gold Coast.
Click to expand...

Perth is the city with the biggest tsunami risk I reckon. No barrier reef, close to the continental shelf and most of the city is close to sea level.


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## keza

kraley said:


> This is amazing.
> 
> http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... -29.19,790


That's great, I want it for my phone.
What is it ? Is it live, recent ?


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## jbonez

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ca...ter-el-nino-may-be-brewing-experts-say-n83526

Interesting read.


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## dru

kraley said:


> Its pretty much based on current info. You can change lits of parameters in that tab at tye bottom.
> 
> Runs on any modern phone, too!


Awesome graphic. Just awesome.


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## dru

And from the BOM on a probable coming El Niño.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


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## Zed

Had our hopefully last Winter storm (and most powerful) of the season last night. Only got about 1cm rain, so no real relief for the drought, but it blew a gale all night and the snow was down to 1000m. There goes the water temps. My local cam looks like whipped peas.


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## Zed

BTW, back on page 5.


jbonez said:


> Anybody seen this before
> 
> thought it was worth a look, click on the wind speed around fraser
> 
> http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-205.08,-23.71,3000


And before that on page 3.


Zed said:


> Gives me the wind...
> http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-175.92,2.11,363
> 
> Click and grab the globe to orient yourself. Updates every 3hrs.


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## Zed

You think your Aussie Winter is getting chilly?
How about our Summer?

1to2feet of snow just before the solstice.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...looding-Minnesota-just-three-days-summer.html

It's an ICE AGE, I TELLS YA...


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## kayakone

Yep. Global warming. :lol:


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## kayakone

You Matt are a nutter. Lows mean big swell, strong winds and massive precipitation. We should strap you to your kayak and send you out in it!


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## systemtester

Slightly less wind than today for tomorrow though.  Mornington Pier this morning.










This is a mega event for us Skiiers too I might add. Its dumped loads on the Alps over the last 24 hours.

I'll be there in a month! Perisher Valley carpark.


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## Zed

bertros said:


> A big system has cut a few days of sailing short with gale warnings today and 35 knot gusts heading back to dock the boat around midday, with winds looking like they've strengthened somewhat since then. Looks like they are copping it down in Victoria too. I love this satellite image of a Low system feeding another Low.


Yeah that looks nasty. Once that moves off and toward NZL, maybe in a week or so I'll let you know if we see some well sorted S hemi juice hitting our S face spots. They're usu big and long period. Long lulls then surprise sets w 10ft faces. Makes surfing or fishing in tight interesting.


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## systemtester

Not looking like much relief for a week or so guys.


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## kayakone

bertros said:


> systemtester said:
> 
> 
> 
> Not looking like much relief for a week or so guys.
> 
> 
> 
> Good news for the snow-kids. It was shaping up to be a royal dud of a season if things hadn't have changed.
Click to expand...

Lawn bowls?


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## Zed

Zed said:


> bertros said:
> 
> 
> 
> A big system has cut a few days of sailing short with gale warnings today and 35 knot gusts heading back to dock the boat around midday, with winds looking like they've strengthened somewhat since then. Looks like they are copping it down in Victoria too. I love this satellite image of a Low system feeding another Low.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah that looks nasty. Once that moves off and toward NZL, maybe in a week or so I'll let you know if we see some well sorted S hemi juice hitting our S face spots. They're usu big and long period. Long lulls then surprise sets w 10ft faces. Makes surfing or fishing in tight interesting.
Click to expand...

Swell started on the 4th and has been 2m+ at the beaches for 3 days now. Took just under 2 weeks since this sat pic was taken.

We lost a lifeguard in Newport Beach this week(RIP), and there has been many rescues of hapless swimmers and people walking on the rocks/jetties. These long period NZL swells really lull people into false security. There can be up to 10min between sets, but the sets are big and powerful. Thanks for the juice. I can smell the sea at my place when the waves are big. Gonna fish tomorrow.


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## Zed

I'm going to slip in a donut whinge (or skunk rant in Americanoese) in the weather thread, maybe no one will notice. Everyone bitches about the weather.

I'm an avid fisherman. I get out one or more times a week on average, (50+ a year) and this is some of the most amazing fishing seen in years. Seen. There's been a lot of coastal (vs island) white seabass (sorta mulloway) through the Spring/Summer, with water temps hitting 25C in spots. As of one week ago yellowfin, bluefin (Thunnus orientalis) --7-19kg on the tunas-- dorado (mahi) to 10kg, school yellowtail to 10kg (KF), and 5+kg bonito busted wide open within kayak range of 5miles of the SoCal coast. These bluewater chances are rare and fleeting here. I went out last Wed, and found nice warm water, a bit down though, ample bait, ripping current, well-employed terns, and nothing but a 2 second encounter with a mako on a live green mack and a 2min smoking run and chew off at the leader (30lb flouro) on a plastic on one of the last drifts back in tighter to the kelp. That one haunts me.

But the point of my whinge, I have fished faithfully building up to this, I think I missed it. Water temps are continuing down, there's low pressure to the N, it's fading to Fall in the pattern. No more mild, fair and calm to warm the waters locally. There's still fish around, but they're being found out about 20miles now. This is a cool local resource:
http://www.tempbreak.com/ Drag the fish in the upper L to get distances from Point Loma (San Diego).

I live and fish at/near Dana Point and the 209 and 267 (fathom banks) are 15miles out the harbor, and the nearest reported fish.
Provided it's clear skies, this gives a daily satellite SST for the bight and banks. We were into the 75F range last Monday. Now it's all breaking up and to the S you can see a wall of blue (cool) blocking the Nward progression of more warm water (the tuna highway for us). This stuff in the bight is just gonna swirl around for a while. We're headed for a heat wave, so maybe another up tick and chance in a week or so. Doesn't look like I can get out this week, breaking a streak building up to this "event" of 6 weeks without a kept fish, and lots of paddling. My freezer is bare! It's killing me thinking about missed fleeting chances. And I blame this board generally. The offshore reports on here make it look so easy. Getting chances at true pelagics is a rare opportunity around the globe. Bastards.


----------

